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Modeling the Influence of Gene Flow and Selection Pressure on the Frequency of a GE Herbicide-Tolerant Trait in Non-GE Wheat and Wheat Volunteers

Dep. of Plant Science, Univ. of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB Canada R3T 2N2

View larger version (26K): [in a new window]   Fig. 1. Frequency of herbicide-resistant genetically engineered (GE) wheat volunteers following application of the herbicide. The selection pressure of the herbicide is 95%. (A) Initial gene flow rates, accounting for dilution, range from 0.003 to 3% to simulate a cultivar such as Oslo that has a high outcrossing rate. (B) Initial gene flow rates, accounting for dilution, range from 0.00001 to 0.01% to simulate a cultivar such as Katepwa that has a low outcrossing rate.

View larger version (19K): [in a new window]   Fig. 2. The accumulation of a genetically engineered (GE) trait in a non-GE wheat population resulting from repeated generations of migration at rates of 0.1, 0.01, and 0.001%. Drop lines indicate the generations required to exceed potential thresholds of 0.25% (– –) and 0.5% (– –) GE wheat in non-GE wheat crops.

View larger version (19K): [in a new window]   Fig. 3. Number of volunteers that would lead to 1, 3, or 5% adventitious presence of a genetically engineered (GE) trait in a non-GE wheat crop sown at 250 seeds m–2 relative to the frequency of GE plants in the volunteer wheat population.